Stanchart: Tsunami Japanese Economy Not Disturb

The political crisis in the Middle East is also only slightly affected the Indonesian economy.

The political crisis in the Middle East and the catastrophic earthquake and tsunami of Japan pointed out only slightly affect the economy of Indonesia. Therefore, trade cooperation, especially with these two countries have little portion of gross domestic product (GDP) of Indonesia.
Standard Chartered Bank noted, Indonesia's GDP share of manufacturing sector contributed most (25 percent), agriculture (15 percent), restaurants (14 percent), and mining (11 percent).
Japan is known is Indonesia's main trading partner. In 2009, Indonesia's exports to Japan reached U.S. $ 18.6 billion, while imports were U.S. $ 9.8 billion. The total trade value of U.S. $ 28.4 billion. Of trade between the two countries, Indonesia U.S. $ 8.8 billion surplus.
Meanwhile, for non-oil trade with Japan, in 2010, total exports reached U.S. $ 16.5 billion and imports U.S. $ 16.9 billion, resulting in a deficit of U.S. $ 400 million.
Relations with LibyaFurthermore, Indonesia's trade relations and related Libya, is currently relatively small impact. Nevertheless, the Libyan crisis impact on oil prices.
"However, the increase is not going to be like in 2008. Therefore, the United States economy began to improve and Libya are not major oil-producing countries of the world," said Standard Chartered Bank's Indonesia economist, Erik Sugandi, in Jakarta, Tuesday, March 29, 2011.
During this time, according to him, the oil from the Middle East's most widely used European countries. Meanwhile, the situation of governance in the world's major oil producing countries, such as the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, and Algeria is still relatively stable.
"Libya is not the largest oil producer. Closed the Libyan oil production can still be bailed out of other countries," said Erik.
Meanwhile, Senior Economist, Standard Chartered Bank Indonesia, Fauzi Ichsan, argues that rising world oil prices caused speculators tend to be triggered. When the crisis ended, the speculation will also subside. "However, the feared, if the crisis to spread to other countries which also supplies the world's oil, oil prices could potentially go up," he said.
During 2011, he estimates that world oil prices would soar to a level of U.S. $ 105 per barrel and the U.S. dollar weakened. "U.S. dollar is not seen as a commodity currency. Speculators will shift investment into stocks and oil," said Fauzi.
With the oil price assumption, the two economists are optimistic that Indonesia's economic growth could penetrate 6.4 to 6.5 percent. "GDP is still supported consumption and FDI (foreign direct investment)."
He explained that the consumption is estimated at 46 percent, while FDI is not yet fully entered in 2010, and will enter this year. "The entry of the portfolio will not be as firm as 2009-2010, but remained inside. This will help strengthen the rupiah and growth," he said.