Harvard Professor Remind 2012 Crisis Threat

The pattern of economic crisis happening once every 15 years. The crisis has occurred in 1982 & 1997.

Professor of Harvard University, Jeffrey Frankel, explaining that if the appropriate pattern of history, in 2012 the economic crisis will occur in developing countries. It is based on the pattern of economic crises that occur every 15 years.
Frankel forecast is based on previous economic crises that occurred in 1982 and 1997. Frenkel three rounds of the world's great divide in developing countries. First, that is 1975-1981, where in 1982 the international debt crisis.
Second, when developing countries began to rebound in 1990-1996. The crisis in the era took place in 1997-1998 in Asia, and in 1998-2002 in Russia, Brazil, Argentina, and Turkey.
Third, occurs when the stock market soared in 2003-2008, which caused the global financial crisis in 2008-2009. "If I like the paranormal, I say round of crises occur every 15 years, and crises in developing countries will occur in 2012," said Frankel at the seminar Coping With Asia's Large capital inflows in A Multi-Speed ​​Global Economy in Bali, Friday 11 March 2011.
In the seminar, Frankel discusses how to manage capital inflows (capital inflow), through two ways: accumulate foreign exchange reserves and strengthen the exchange rate. He asserted, who managed just two kebijakaan countries that implement it.
Governor of Bank Indonesia, Nasution said Indonesia perform a variety of policies for foreign funds is not to interfere in the domestic economy.
He explained there are five key policies that made the central bank. First, interest rate policy that is assigned to the BI rate mencapati price stability, taking into account the macro economic outlook and financial system stability.
Second, exchange rate flexibility. Bank Indonesia to control the dollars to help the achievement of price stability.
Third, the accumulation of foreign reserves, with protection against the risk of reversal make a large-scale capital.
Fourth, the financial stability of macro control policies and the economy in general (macroprudential) to the flow of capital for the right target.
Fifth, strengthen the operation of monetary and financial stability macroprudential in the system for the management of domestic liquidity management in the face of capital inflow invasion.